France Elections 2024 LIVE | National Assembly Results | Marine Le Pen | Jordan Bardella | Emmanuel Macron | Who won the Legislative Elections in France? | Exit poll | National Rally | Far Right | Far Right | Congress | Left | WORLD


The far right will go to the polls this Sunday, July 7, 2024, for the second round of early legislative elections, elections that will most likely challenge the country’s governability and leave the far right as the leading political force. According to polls published just before the day of reflection this Saturday, the far right of The National Rally (RN) would win between 170 and 230 seats, which would be a relative majority far from the 289 seats needed to control the French National Assembly. The New Popular Front (NFP), which brings together the main left-wing parties, would win 159 to 191, while the Macronist bloc would win 118-150 and even further behind would be the conservative Les Républicains (LR), with between 35 and 67 seats.

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With these predictions and after a very polarized campaign, The most likely scenario is that of a France that is very difficult to govern..

LOOK: The surprising rise of the far right in France: What political scenarios lie ahead?

From RN, Le Pen has insisted that the absolute majority – which her party was close to achieving with the numbers from the victory on June 30 – is still within reach. despite the fact that the withdrawal of candidates in many constituencies to create a ‘cordon sanitaire’ around the far right has seriously damaged their aspirations, according to polls this week.

National Rally leader Marine Le Pen and possible future French Prime Minister Jordan Bardella during a political meeting in Paris, June 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Thomas Padilla, File)

National Rally leader Marine Le Pen and possible future French Prime Minister Jordan Bardella during a political meeting in Paris, June 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Thomas Padilla, File)

/ Thomas Padilla

Without an absolute majority it would be impossible to Jordan Bardellaa candidate for prime minister and Le Pen’s successor, is trying to implement his electoral programme, according to many leaders of the former National Front.

Some of his best-known proposals, in fact, would even require a sufficient majority and/or agreements to reform the Constitution.

“You panicked when your disastrous programme was revealed and some of your candidates made racist, anti-Semitic and homophobic comments,” said French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on Saturday, denying a report on the withdrawal of the new immigration law, which was published on the last day of the campaign and was used by the RN.

French President Emmanuel Macron speaks to reporters at the end of the European Council Summit at the EU headquarters in Brussels on June 28, 2024. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)

French President Emmanuel Macron speaks to reporters at the end of the European Council Summit at the EU headquarters in Brussels on June 28, 2024. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)

/ Ludovic Marin

On the traditional right, embodied by Les Républiques, a rapprochement with the far right is so deeply divisive that it has generated an internal split, after its leader, Éric Ciotti, advocated such a possibility shortly after the dissolution of the Assembly by French President Emmanuel Macron, following the far-right victory in the European elections.

A complex framework on the left as well

Given this situation, the likely second force and major alternative to the RN, the left-wing coalition known as the New Popular Front, would not have an easier time governing either.

It has sparked rejection not only from conservative sectors, but also from a good part of the more centrist ones, as is the case within Macronism – apparently condemned to fall to third position in the Assembly after these elections – for including Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise as one of its main ingredients.

The duels of the second round in France. (AFP).

The duels of the second round in France. (AFP).

The left is calling for a strong mobilisation, fanning the threat of a far-right France, but it will be difficult to improve on last Sunday’s strong turnout of 67.5% (the highest since 1997).

In total, 501 seats will be up for grabs tomorrow, as 76 were directly awarded in the first round, with the winning candidate obtaining more than 50% of the votes (and with that support representing more than 25% of the voters registered in the constituency).

Of these, 39 were won by the RN and its allies (such as the one contested by Marine Le Pen herself), while the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP), which includes parties such as the Socialist Party and La France Insoumise, secured 32 and Macronism only two.

Polling stations will open at 8 a.m. (06:00 GMT in mainland France) and remain open until 6 p.m. (16:00 GMT), except in some major cities, where the deadline will be extended by one or even two hours.

Voting has already begun in some overseas territories on Saturday, but it will not be until tomorrow at 8:00 p.m. (18:00 GMT) when polling firms will release initial estimates of the uncertain composition of the new National Assembly.

Candidates resign in France. (AFP)

Candidates resign in France. (AFP)

The keys to the second round

These are the key points of the crucial election for France:

1) The results of the first round

Following the historic victory of Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s right-hand man, in the European elections in June and the unexpected dissolution of the National Assembly immediately decided by President Emmanuel Macron, the far-right National Rally (RN) was also the big winner in the first round of the legislative elections.

In the first round of voting, which was characterised by a strong turnout (67.5%), the RN and its allies won 33.15% of the votes, ahead of the left-wing coalition of the New Popular Front (27.99%) and Macronism (20.04%).

2) Seats up for grabs and already decided

With an absolute majority of 289 deputies, this second round will put a total of 501 seats at stake, since 76 were already awarded in the first round.

Of these, 39 were won by the RN and its allies (such as the one contested by Marine Le Pen herself), while the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP), which includes parties such as the Socialist Party and La France Insoumise, secured 32 and Macronism only two.

3) How the seat is awarded in the second round

Unlike in the first round, where the candidate had to obtain more than 50% of the votes in his or her constituency – provided that this represents at least 25% of the voters registered on the census – to directly access the seat, in the second round the candidate who comes out on top obtains the seat, regardless of the percentages.

4) Duels, triangular and quadrangular

In cases where the polls did not determine a final winner in the first round, the French system allows lists that obtain at least 12.5% ​​of the votes of the total number of registered voters in a constituency to qualify for the second round.

This Sunday, most of the duels will be two-way, but 89 constituencies will decide between three candidates (the so-called triangular) and two will decide between four (quadrangular). There will also be an election with only one candidate – Davy Rimane, a leftist, in the second constituency of French Guiana – after the withdrawal of his rival.

5) Withdrawal of candidates and sanitary cordon

According to the results of last Sunday, the triangular elections initially planned for the second round were in the majority, since in a total of 306 constituencies more than two candidates qualified.

Over the course of the week, however, more than two hundred candidates withdrew from the race. Most of them did so to form a cordon sanitaire around the far right and came from the left-wing coalition NPF (58%) and, to a lesser extent, from Macronism (36%).

6) Latest projections

The impact of the withdrawal of candidates has been felt in the polls, which have reduced the extent of the victory expected for the Le Pen bloc RN and, consequently, its chances of obtaining an absolute majority.

At the close of the campaign on Friday, the eve of today’s day of reflection, projections give between 175 and 205 seats to the RN and its allies; between 145 and 175 deputies to the NFP; between 118 and 148 seats to Macronism; between 57 and 67 to the conservative right-wing party Les Républiques and the rest to be shared among various political parties.

7) Opening of schools and first estimates

Polling stations in France will open at 8 a.m. (6 a.m. GMT in mainland France) and will remain open until 6 p.m. (4 p.m. GMT), except in some major cities, where the deadline will be extended by one or even two hours.

Polling companies will release their initial estimates of the composition of the new National Assembly at 8:00 p.m. (18:00 GMT), which will trigger the first reactions from political leaders, while the Interior Ministry announces the first partial results.

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